2016 NCAA Final Four Values

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The last three years I have looked at the concept of finding value in your NCAA bracket. The idea is to not only pick the teams with the best chance of winning, but also the teams being undervalued in your pool. You can find the 2013 version here, the 2014 version here, and the 2015 version… Read more »

Do Matchups Matter? (Part 3 – Press Teams)

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The last two seasons I’ve tried to take a look at “opponent compatibility” and how matchups affect game outcomes. My first attempt broadly concluded: “the best way to predict the winner of a game appears to be just picking the better of the two teams“. Last year I put a whole bunch of different ideas… Read more »

The Effects of Coaching Changes

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In a recent post, I went back and looked at a Beilein West Virginia team. Both Bob Huggins and John Beilein have had success coaching the Mountaineers, but they have done so with markedly different offensive strategies. The following graph visualizes these differences: There once was a time when West Virginia wasn’t a perennial offensive… Read more »

The Debates: Biggest Tourney Snub

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The following is part three of three of a series of debates featuring Jonathan Safir, Ricky Winkeller, and Jordan Sperber. For part three, we will be examining the biggest NCAA Tourney snub (i.e. bubble teams) in the KenPom Era (2003-2012). Jonathan Safir: 2007 Syracuse Editor’s note: I am admittedly biased with this decision.  I did… Read more »

Atlantic Coast Conference: 2010-11 Preview

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Teams Boston College Before last season, I talked to my friend who happens to be a BC fan. We talked about realistic expectations for BC. They had everyone back except for standout guard Tyrese Rice. Interestingly enough, he told me he expected BC to take a step forward in 2009-10 while getting worse results. How… Read more »

Whacks at the Pinata

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Earlier this month, Ken Pomeroy tweeted, “I request to copyright the phrase ‘gets more whacks at the pinata’ to describe a low FG%/high efficiency offense.” Naturally, I decided to take this a step further. This post is a look at the teams that got the most whacks in 2009-2010. Formula (Team’s OEff)-((100.8/48.8)*(Team’s eFG%)) Explanation The… Read more »