Inconsistency and Miami’s Hot Start

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In past years, I’ve written in detail about year-to-year improvement among college basketball teams. Back in the 2013-14 season, I observed a very experienced North Dakota State team. The Bison had nearly everyone back from 2012-13 and were expected to have a big season largely thanks to a great defense. However, the defense took a… Read more »

The Miami Offense: Breaking Down the Canes’ Improvement

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If you take a look at the top five offenses in the country by adjusted efficiency, you won’t be surprised to find four teams considered by many to be top national title contenders. Duke, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Gonzaga all came into the season with high expectations and have lived up to them thus far. The… Read more »

Final Four Values

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The running narrative for the NCAA this season has been all about the parity at the top. Yet here we are in mid March and despite “the field being wide open”, everyone is taking Louisville. Now I’m not saying this is a bad idea. Louisville may end up cutting down the nets in Atlanta. However,… Read more »

Finding an Upset: Three Pointers

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Every year in the NCAA tournament, inferior team beat superior teams. Norfolk State was not a better team than Missouri, they just scored more points over a 40 minute period. The cause behind these upsets is variability. It’s no shocking revelation that three point shots increase variability. The three point shot has long been known as a… Read more »

Atlantic Coast Conference: 2010-11 Preview

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Teams Boston College Before last season, I talked to my friend who happens to be a BC fan. We talked about realistic expectations for BC. They had everyone back except for standout guard Tyrese Rice. Interestingly enough, he told me he expected BC to take a step forward in 2009-10 while getting worse results. How… Read more »