NCAA Tournament Narratives: Regular Season Competition

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The following is part of a series of NCAA tournament posts. You can find the intro to the series here.   Narrative: Results vs. good teams are more important than bad teams.   I first took a look at this idea back in early January. At that time, Louisville had put up historically good numbers… Read more »

2014 NCAA Final Four Values

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Last year, I wrote about the idea of finding value in your NCAA bracket. The larger your tournament pool, the more important “value” becomes. That means not only picking who has the best chance of winning, but also considering who everyone else is going to pick. You can get three Final Four teams right, but… Read more »

Teams to Avoid on Selection Sunday

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With 20 days left until Selection Sunday, online bracketology is slowly becoming more relevant. It’s also that time of year where announcers end their broadcast with a classic warning for future opponents of the winning team in said broadcast. “You don’t want to see your name near Team X in March.” Of course, the tournament… Read more »

Michigan vs. Louisville

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With just over an hour left until the final college basketball game of the 2013 season, I give you one last look at Michigan and Louisville. Michigan comes in with the number one ranked offense in the country, Louisville comes in with the number one ranked defense in the country. Obviously the reason Louisville is… Read more »

Keys for Wichita State

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Earlier this week I wrote about what I call opponent “compatibility”. I basically wanted to know if there was any evidence for bad matchups beyond simply the general strength of the two teams. Now, I decided to use that same sample to take a look at the Louisville-Wichita St game today. My sample includes every… Read more »

Final Four Values

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The running narrative for the NCAA this season has been all about the parity at the top. Yet here we are in mid March and despite “the field being wide open”, everyone is taking Louisville. Now I’m not saying this is a bad idea. Louisville may end up cutting down the nets in Atlanta. However,… Read more »

The Effects of Offense on Defense

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Last month, I looked at the effect of Louisville’s offense on its defense. When a Louisville offensive possession ends, they get to set up their press. Setting up their defense makes it dramatically more difficult for opponents to score. Both field percentage and turnover percentage are influenced by the Louisville press. The one and done… Read more »

How to Beat Louisville

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On January 18th, the Louisville Cardinals sat at 16-1 (4-0 in the Big East) and number one in the country. Louisville featured the number one ranked defense (efficiency-wise) in the country and a greatly improved offense from 2011-12. Now, 10 days later, the Cardinals are 4-3 in the Big East with losses to Syracuse, Villanova,… Read more »

A Video Charter’s Guide To The Final Four | Stat Geek Idol

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The following is the third (Final Four) post I wrote for TeamRankings’ Stat Geek Idol. For more information on the competition click here. Last week, I attempted to quantify Wisconsin’s Swing Offense through the use of video charting. With the Final Four, I set out on a similar goal for Louisville, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Kansas. To… Read more »