Projecting Defense

Posted by on October 28, 2014

If you read the site last season, you might remember my look at North Dakota State and experience. To summarize, the Bison were one of the most experienced teams in the country last season and overwhelming favorites in the Summit League because of a strong defense in 2012-13. NDSU did in fact win the Summit… Read more »


Quick Hitters: Season Wrap-Up

Posted by on April 14, 2014

The following is the final installment of Quick Hitters for the 2013-14 season. You can check out the (relatively small) collection here.     1. Did free throws really cost Kentucky a championship?   The national championship game featured a very good free throw shooting team and a not so good free throw shooting team…. Read more »


Game Preview: Connecticut vs. Kentucky

Posted by on April 7, 2014

How do UK and UConn compare to past champions?   Tonight’s championship match-up is the first one without a team seeded three or better. However, seeding doesn’t quite tell the full story. In terms of adjusted efficiency, the winner of tonight’s game will become the second worst team (on Selection Sunday) to win a national… Read more »


The Michigan State Injuries

Posted by on March 28, 2014

Michigan State opened the preseason ranked number two in the country. They ended the season as the second most common champion in ESPN brackets. That isn’t exactly out of the ordinary, but consider MSU’s road to March. After a January 21st win vs. Indiana, the Spartans didn’t win two games in a row until the… Read more »


Visualizing the 2014 Sweet 16

Posted by on March 26, 2014

Even with Duke and Creighton getting knocked out last weekend, the tournament still features plenty of one dimensional teams. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Baylor are all strong on offense and (relatively) weak on defense. San Diego State is strong on defense and weak on offense.   Take a look at this Sweet 16 efficiency visulization (all… Read more »


NCAA Tournament Narratives: Defense Wins Championship

Posted by on March 19, 2014

The following is part of a series of NCAA tournament posts. You can find the intro to the series here.   Narrative: Defense wins championships.   In order to win a basketball game, you simply have to score more points than the other team. You do this through the combination of offense and defense. Some… Read more »


NCAA Tournament Narratives: March Momentum

Posted by on March 19, 2014

The following is part of a series of NCAA tournament posts. You can find the intro to the series here.   Narrative: Late season results are more important than early season.   Teams around the country are going to get “hot” every March. That’s just the nature of the single elimination conference tournament. One team… Read more »


NCAA Tournament Narratives: Road Wins

Posted by on March 19, 2014

The following is part of a series of NCAA tournament posts. You can find the intro to the series here.   Narrative: Road results are more important than home results.   If you go back to the intro post, I mentioned how an NCAA tournament game isn’t completely equal to a regular season game. Sometimes… Read more »


NCAA Tournament Narratives: Regular Season Competition

Posted by on March 19, 2014

The following is part of a series of NCAA tournament posts. You can find the intro to the series here.   Narrative: Results vs. good teams are more important than bad teams.   I first took a look at this idea back in early January. At that time, Louisville had put up historically good numbers… Read more »


NCAA Tournament Narratives: Introduction

Posted by on March 19, 2014

When I was younger, long before I divided my points by possessions, I remember a particular Sports Illustrated for Kids article about the NCAA tournament catching my eye. The article was something along the lines of: “10 things to remember when filling out your bracket”. The article was clearly effective, I remember even saving it… Read more »